Osun is topping the headlines as the
governorship race hits the top gear. The ruling party is striving to retain
power, while the opposition is struggling to regain it. The state has been
electrified with political campaigns, unfulfillable electoral promises,
freebies and rallies. The masses our politicians usually regard as unimportant
has abruptly become the most important. The helmsmen and statesmen Osun people
rarely see are now knocking on their doors daily to plead for votes. Davido is
singing, but the terpsichorean Senator Adeleke is no longer dancing. Unpaid
workers are suddenly being paid. Every candidate is acting cautiously in order
to earn the highest votes on Saturday, 22 September, 2018.
Forty-eight political parties
presented candidates, but the leading contenders, not listed in order of
political strengths, are Fatai Akinbade for the Advanced Democratic Congress
(ADC); Moshood Adeoti for the Action Democratic Party (ADP); Gboyega Oyetola
for the All Progressives Congress (APC); Ademola Adeleke for the People’s
Democratic Party (PDP); and Iyiola Omisore for the Social Democratic Party
(SDP). Though many Nigerians think the PDP and APC candidates have an edge, the
other three candidates are like the biblical David; underrating them is risky
as they may spin a surprise.
This election is the most keenly
contested governorship poll in Osun State. All the five major candidates are
strong political figures with vast experience and a formidable support base.
ADC’s Akinbade is a former state party chairman and ex-governorship aspirant
under the PDP. He is also a former secretary to the Osun State government.
ADP’s Adeoti is an ex-councilor, and former state party chairman of the defunct
Action Congress (AC) and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). He is also the
immediate past secretary to the state government (SSG). APC’s Gboyega Oyetola
is the immediate past chief-of-staff to the state government. PDP’s Adeleke is
a serving senator representing the Osun-west senatorial district of the state.
And SDP’s Omisore is an ex-senator and former deputy governor of the state.
Voter’s decision in the Osun election
would be determined by a lot of factors. The ethnic politics being played at
the federal level and other states of the federation is also reigning in Osun. ADP’s
Adeoti has been playing the ethnic card. He is vigorously campaigning that the -
unconstitutional but - conventional rule of rotating governorship position
among the three senatorial zones of the state has been violated. Adeoti argues
that since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999, only the Osun-West
senatorial district is yet to produce a governor out of the three districts in
the state.
The Osun-Central senatorial district
produced Bisi Akande (1999-2003) and Olagunsoye Oyinlola (2003-2010). Both
cumulatively ruled the state for over eleven years. The incumbent governor Rauf
Aregbesola (2010-2018) comes from the Osun-East Senatorial district. Adeoti - who
was a key member of the APC before decamping to the ADP - is aggrieved that the
APC picked Oyetola, from the Osun-Central senatorial district, as her
governorship candidate. Adeoti argues that the party’s ticket should have been
given to someone, preferably him, from the Osun-West senatorial district. Ethnic
affiliation controls voter’s emotion in Nigerian elections. Adeoti’s
anti-marginalization campaign strategy may have earned him substantial votes in
his constituency, the Osun-West senatorial district, but PDP’s Adeleke and SDP’s
Omisore are also from this constituency.
Omisore, has many supporters,
loyalists and admirers in the Ife areas. Ife-Central and Ife-East has the
highest number of registered voters after Osogbo, the state capital. Omisore
will earn substantial votes in the Ife regions, but not as he did in 2014 when
he lost to incumbent governor Aregbesola. The party he contested under in 2014,
the PDP, has a better structure and membership than his current party, the SDP.
Under the PDP, Omisore came second in the 2014 election with over 200,000 votes
in less than seven local governments.
Omisore’s governorship ambition is
plagued by negative public opinions. Majority of the Osun population believes he
ordered the assault on late Senator Isiaka Adeleke when they were both
competing for the PDP governorship ticket in 2014. Omisore also has also been
unable to erase the public perception that he is complicit in the assassination
of Bola Ige, Nigeria’s ex-Attorney General. Even though Omisore has been tried
and acquitted, his political opponents still raise the dust on Ige’s
assassination during election season. As a veteran contestant with political
structures across the state’s 30 local governments, Omisore’s accrued votes
will predictably rank him among the top three, but may not earn him a win.
The ADC candidate, Fatai Akinbade, is
not less good for the job, but he has a slim chance. His major backbone are
yesterday’s men – former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola and ex-president Olusegun
Obasanjo. The duo’s power and capacity have diminished so much that their lead
backing can’t earn Akinbade a win. Obasanjo and Oyinlola are still influential,
but their endorsement is just that extra support every candidate needs, they
are not a strong winning determinant. Moreover, Akinbade scored below 10,000
votes when he was the governorship candidate of the Labour Party in 2014. In
this election, Akinbade’s sole aim may be to frustrate the winning chance of
the PDP, the party he recently left when he couldn’t secure the governorship
ticket.
PDP’s Ademola Adeleke has a bright
chance in this election, but he needs to make last minute efforts to further
convince the voters that he has the intellectual ability to govern Osun,
despite being less educated. The opposition is making political gains from
Adeleke’s insufficient education and such may affect his victory. Nevertheless,
Nigerians currently place less priority on the educational qualification of
electoral candidates. Adeleke’s inadequate education may not affect his chances
considering that Nigerians sacked Dr Goodluck Jonathan and elected a less
educated Muhammadu Buhari as president in 2015.
The police on 19 September, 2018
invited Adeleke for arraignment over allegations that he was involved in examination
malpractice and criminal conspiracy during the NECO examination he registered
for in 2016. The presidency has reportedly instructed the police to stay action
till after the election. President Buhari’s action on Adeleke’s case is
constructive and highly commendable. But then again, Adeleke’s tribulation is a
lesson that one must always plan for the future and education is the master
key. The predicament of Adeleke, Davido’s uncle, may have influenced the famous
singer to enroll for the mandatory NYSC scheme after graduating.
Adeleke won the last major election
in Osun state to become a senator, after the death of his brother. If Adeleke has
maintained a good relationship with the population that gave him sympathy votes
during his senatorial election, he would earn more votes than the other
candidates in Osun-West senatorial district. Adeleke’s chance of winning would
have fade off if he had not reconciled with Dr Akin Ogunbiyi, his main rival
during the PDP governorship primary election. The outcome of the same primary
saw Akinbade pulling out to pick ADC’s governorship ticket. For Adeleke to have
a comfortable lead, he must convince some of the PDP defector’s supporters, in
the camp of Akinbade and Omisore, to vote for the PDP.
APC’s Gboyega Oyetola have almost all
it takes to win the election. He belongs to the ruling party in control of the
other five states in the Southwest. He’s a brilliant administrator with vast
knowledge of Osun politics, having run the state with governor Aregbesola for
over seven years, as his chief-of-staff. Oyetola is a viable instrument of
continuity and the electorates would thumb him, if they are satisfied with
Aregbesola’s performance. Oyetola also have the federal might which can
technically manage the election in his favor. In addition, Oyetola enjoys the
backing of Bola Tinubu – the man whose raging political sagacity has installed
governors and sacked then president Goodluck Jonathan. Despite all this
election winning essentials, Oyetola may not win. His victory is being caged by
controversies and intra-party conflict.
Oyetola’s emergence as governorship
candidate nearly shattered the APC. The party chieftains had initially zoned
the governorship ticket to Osun-West district, but later abandoned the
arrangement to back Oyetola from the Osun-Central district that has governed
the state for almost 12 years. Although Oyetola emerged through a direct
primary process, other contenders believe his emergence was based on the
overbearing influence of his cousin, Bola Tinubu. This triggered disaffections,
protests and the exit of influential figures from the APC. The party lost
Moshood Adeoti, the immediate past SSG and current candidate of the ADP.
APC also lost Senator Bayo Salami; eleven
aggrieved members of the State Working Committee; the ex-Commissioner for
Information and Strategy, Hon. Sunday Akere; and the ex-Commissioner for
Finance, Budget and Economic Planning, Dr Wale Bolorunduro. Chairman of the Osun
State Local Government Service Commission, Dr Peter Babalola also decamped. Other
notable defectors are members of the state house of assembly representing Ede
North, Iwo and Ilesa-West, which is the incumbent governor’s constituency.
Ex-governor Oyinlola also defected from the APC to ADC before the primary. Politics
is an all-inclusive sport. The exit of these persons and their supporters would
have a significant damaging effect on Oyetola’s votes.
Such happened recently in Ekiti State.
The ruling Ekiti PDP lost its heavyweights after Governor Fayose’s deputy,
Kolapo Olushola, became the governorship candidate. Notables such as Prince
Dayo Adeyeye and Senator Fatimah Raji-Rasaki decamped from the PDP to the APC. The
ruling party later lost the election. APC’s Kayode Fayemi defeated PDP’s Kolapo
Olushola with about 20,000 votes. Fayemi wouldn’t have got the winning votes if
the PDP bigwigs didn’t decamp to the APC.
Another count against Oyetola is the
populace perception that he’s another Lagos importee and Tinubu’s stooge, like
Aregbesola. Some of the voters see thumbing Oyetola as licensing Tinubu to rule
the state by proxy. APC’s victory partly depends on Oyetola’s ability to shred
this notion. Efforts to convince the electorates might end up being unfruitful
based on the recent happenings in Lagos. Tinubu’s obsessiveness, dictatorial
tendencies, and alleged resistance to Governor Ambode’s reelection bid might make
Osun people reject Oyetola, who is Tinubu’s cousin. Tinubu has many electable
brains, far-reaching networks and large followers, but his take-it-all syndrome
and godfather politics is making him lose the admiration of many. Nobody in
Nigeria today, not even President Buhari, has made godfather politics obvious like
Tinubu.
Aregbesola’s effort in the provision
of infrastructure is commendable, but his inability to pay workers salary may
deny Oyetola victory. Osun is a downright civil servants state and the
non-payment of salaries, pensions and arrears has immensely affected the living
standards of not just the civil servants alone, but the entire residents of the
state. The working population may decide to deny APC their votes and that of
their friends, families and associates. A similar situation made PDP lose the
recent governorship election in Ekiti.
Osun election is a crucial way of
testing the credibility of the recently concluded Ekiti governorship election. A
comparative study of pre-election periods in Ekiti and Osun state exposed that
all the factors that made PDP lose in Ekiti are present in Osun. Both states
have incumbent two-term governors who cannot seek reelection, but wish to
install their choice successor. Both the ruling Ekiti PDP and the ruling Osun
APC presented top serving government officials as gubernatorial candidates.
Both the ruling Ekiti PDP and the ruling Osun APC lost influential members after
they conducted primaries. Both the Ekiti PDP and Osun APC ruling governments
were owing salaries, arrears and pensions. If you assess the pre-election
period in Ekiti carefully, you’ll discover that almost all the factors that
made PDP lose in Ekiti are present in Osun.
Based on this premise, a win for the APC
in the Osun governorship election is a strong pointer that something was
fundamentally wrong with the Ekiti election, maybe rigged. The difference
between Ekiti and Osun is that between six and half-dozen. The states are in
the same region and have people of similar orientation, culture and background.
Their governorship elections also hold within the same period.
The pundit would have ticked APC’s
Oyetola as the prospective governor-elect, but the recent happenings in nearby
Ekiti, which is similar to what is currently happening in Osun, makes the
pundit cast doubt on his emergence. The ADC, ADP and SDP flag-bearer are strong
candidates, but their party structure is somewhat weak to win a governorship
election, even though such has happened before. Olusegun Mimiko and Ibrahim
Shekarau won governorship elections under the (seemingly weak) platform of the
LP and ANPP in Ondo and Kano states. But things have changed terrifically. It
is currently very unpromising that an individual would defect to a less popular
party on the eve of a governorship election and win in Osun. Such defections apparently
can’t earn the defectors a win, but can extremely damage the winning chances of
the popular parties they defected from. All election winning indices considered,
Ademola Adeleke’s (PDP) emergence as governor-elect is predicted.
Note: Foretelling an election outcome
doesn’t mean the pundit have access to one sacred information or the election
winning strategy of any candidate. Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of
candidates to predict who’ll win is a common practice in developed nations.
This doesn’t mean the pundits are compromising the electoral process or
influencing the election results. Osun people have already decide who they’ll
cast their votes for and nothing - not this piece - can easily change their
minds. The pundit’s election prediction is made based on the expectation of a
free, fair and credible election, not electoral fraud.
*Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He
wrote in via moshdeji@yahoo.com
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