"May 30th 2017 has gone down as a date that the Igbo
people showed, with total accord, that they are dead serious about their quest
for freedom.
The sit-at-home call by the pro-Biafra groups, the
Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB, and the Movement for the Actualisation of
the Sovereign State of Biafra, MASSOB, was observed by Ndi Igbo all over the
country, with the South East totally locked down. Streets and highways were
empty of commercial or vehicular activities, except for the vehicles of
law-enforcement agencies which patrolled to maintain law and order.
The skies over major cities such as Aba, Enugu, Onitsha,
Owerri and Umuahia were patrolled by military jets and helicopters. Unlike
other times when the pro-Biafra groups called for mass actions through peaceful
street protests which led to loss of lives as a result of shootings by the army
and police, no one was in sight to be shot.
Already, the initial mockery that greeted the Biafra
independence campaign about two years ago is giving way to a new template for
reality check. When IPOB called its first protests just before its leader,
Nnamdi Kanu, was arrested in December 2015, former President
Olusegun Obasanjo mocked the protesting youth, saying they were “looking for
money”. Others said they were unemployed youth given money by some politicians
to carry out the protests for undisclosed political gains. In other words they
were rented crowds.
Already, Obasanjo has changed tones, saying that if the
Presidency is given to the Igbo in 2019, the Biafra issue will disappear. The
last we heard from him was that the youth should be “begged” to drop their
agitations. Even to the mockers and doubters, it is obvious that if a
referendum is allowed today, the “Biafrexit” yes will be overwhelming.
Those of us who are still holding out the faint hope that
Nigeria can still be amended to correct the inequity flaws that retard it and
make its citizens unhappy won’t be able to do much. We have become a miserable
minority. Unless care is taken and soon, if the masses begin to respond in this
manner to calls for boycotts of the civic activities that make us all
Nigerians, such as elections, the forth-coming census and what not,
overwhelming pressure might force that referendum to take place.
As I said, the result is likely to be an overwhelming “Yes”.
What are the scenarios that will likely take shape thereafter? Number one
scenario, if the Nigerian State succumbs to a referendum, it is likely to be
restricted to the people of the South East.
Nigeria is unlikely to concede the former Eastern Region (which
is the definitive geo-polity frequently portrayed as Biafra by its promoters)
as the breakaway enclave. It will not give up the oil and gas resources that
feed its treasury with free rent. It is also unlikely that the non-South
Easterners will sign to be included in the Biafra. So, it is far safer for the
Biafra activists to scale down their geo-political boundaries to a landlocked
South East.
That being so, I dare say that being landlocked is not the
end of the world. Switzerland, Austria, Botswana and Rwanda are landlocked, yet
they are either developed or rapidly developing countries within their
continents. Those who are predicting doom for a landlocked Biafra could be
seriously mistaken.
During the war, when the population of the defunct Biafra was
largely on the run, there was no fuel scarcity. Biafran scientists created
machines and technologies to fight the war and keep the system running. A
peaceful, landlocked Biafra, with the sheer power of the Igbo creative might
unleashed, can only take-off like a rocket, though the initial stages will be
very trying.
Biafra might become the first African country to export the
type of technologies that we currently buy from Europe, America and Asia to
African countries within ten years. People should always remember that it is
not natural resources that make a country great but its human resources of
which the Igbo boast one of the most premium qualities in Africa.
Even at that, the resources (oil, gas, coal, limestone and
others) are there in enough quantities to serve the needs of the republic. On
the other hand, Biafra could run into an initial face-off between factions such
as IPOB and MASSOB for supremacy. MASSOB might claim it restarted the struggle
that won the independence while IPOB which is far more radical could claim to
be the group that won the independence. If this is not sorted out amicably,
Biafra could face the South Sudan scenario between President Salva Kiir and his
estranged Deputy, Riek Machar, though the South Sudan conflict is mostly ethnic-based
as opposed to the fact that Biafra will be a country of a homogenous ethnic
stock.
Another scenario is that Igbo property left behind in
Nigeria will probably be confiscated. States can make laws to appropriate them.
That is a sacrifice the Igbos who own property in Nigeria outside the South
East must be prepared to make. You cannot eat your cake and have it.
Nigerians will likely tell you that “out is out”, as the
Europeans are telling Britain after Brexit. Igbos who refuse to relocate to
their country will be dehumanised as unwanted foreigners. Ndi Igbo, faced with
the South East as Biafra, must be ready to start life afresh from the scratch,
with the firm determination never to repeat the mistakes that makes Nigeria
unworkable.
The break-away of Biafra will likely lead to a break-up of
the rest of this otherwise blessed nation. With a leg of the Tripod gone, the
rest of the super-structure cannot stand for long. With the Igbo people gone to
their own country, it is unlikely that the Yoruba people will like to live
under the servitude of the North.
They will become a very vulnerable junior partner to Arewa,
a situation they are unlikely to live with for long. They will also want to go
and form their own country. They already have fantastic natural geopolitical
advantages which they will simply leverage on and move on with their lives. But
will the North also allow them to go in peace? The Ijaw nation, in particular,
is likely to assert its independence. The North will, like Biafra, become
landlocked. If Biafra goes, there is no way the rest of the country will
continue happily ever after.
Nigeria is like an intricately knitted fabric. Cut the
thread at any point and the rest will come undone. At this point, we probably
have the last opportunity to sort out the problems militating against genuine
unity in our country. Time is running out on Nigeria as we know it.
Already, the hearts of majority of Igbo people have left
Nigeria. It will take some earth-shaking measures to bring them back. It has
nothing to do with giving them an “Igbo president”.
If, for instance, the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC,
in a most unlikely scenario, picks any of such individuals as Chris Ngige,
Ogbonnaya Onu, Rochas or Okorocha, Ken Nnamani to stand as a figurehead president,
they will call Sokoto, Katsina or Kaduna every morning to take instructions for
their daily work.
It will make no difference for the Igbo or Nigeria. There is
no alternative to restructuring Nigeria to allow the federating units the
freedom to develop at their respective paces within the overall Nigerian
commonwealth.
The Nigerian people need freedom. That is the irreducible
minimum for real change. If restructuring will not be possible, then let those
who believe Igbo people will die if granted Biafra join hands in granting them
independence.
Allow them to “go and die” and see if they will actually die
or become the toast of the African continent within the lifetime of most of
us!.."
*Contributed by Donald D Donnell.
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