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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Cisco predicts 8bn handhelds by 2016


The latest Visual Networking Index (VNI) from Cisco Systems has predicted that 8 billion handhelds would be in the market by 2016, even as Cisco’s Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast says that there will be an 18-fold increase over the next five years.

Extracts of both the Cisco’s Visual Networking Index (VNI) and Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2011 to 2016, made available to ITRealms Online indicated that worldwide mobile data traffic will increase 18-fold over the next five years, while 8 billion handhelds must have been in people’s homes.

The VNI latest report on ‘Impact of Mobile Devices/Connections’ showed that the increasing number of wireless devices and nodes accessing mobile networks worldwide is the primary contributor to traffic growth.

Hence, by 2016, VNI stated that there will be more than 8 billion handhelds or personal mobile-ready devices and nearly 2 billion machine-to-machine connections, such as Global Positioning System (GPS) systems in cars, asset tracking systems in shipping and manufacturing sectors and medical applications for making patient records more readily available.

Smartphones, laptops and other portable devices, the report stated, will drive about 90 per cent of global mobile data traffic by 2016. This is in addition to Machine-To-Machine, which is predicted to represent about 5 per cent of 2016 global mobile data traffic, while residential broadband mobile gateways will account for the remaining 5 per cent of global mobile data traffic.

On the impact of traffic offload from mobile networks to fixed networks, the VNI reported that in order to address the rise in demand for the mobile Internet, service providers are increasingly looking forward to offload traffic to fixed and Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) networks.

Therefore, Cisco’s VNI noted that in 2011 alone, about 11 per cent or 72 peta bytes, per month of total mobile data traffic were offloaded.

This, the report pointed out that by 2016, 22 per cent, or 3.1 exa-bytes, per month of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded.

“Without offloading, the 2011-2016 global mobile data traffic based on Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) would be 84 per cent instead of 78 per cent,” part of the statement read.

Adding that should all aspects of mobility be taken into consideration, such as cellular traffic, traffic offloaded from cellular networks and fixed cum Wi-Fi traffic generated from portable devices, the total amount of mobility traffic would be more than four times the Cisco Mobile VNI forecast’s 2016 cellular traffic level.

As said by the VNI in 2011, the sum of cellular traffic; cellular offload traffic; and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic from portable devices totaled 11.5 exabytes per month:

Cellular, the report showed is 5.2 per cent or 597 peta-bytes per month, while cellular Offload is 0.6 per cent or 72 peta-bytes per month. Even as Fixed/Wi-Fi is 94.2 per cent or 10.9 exabytes per month, the 2011 index had reported that fixed/Wi-Fi traffic was more than 18 times greater than cellular traffic.

Therefore, in 2015, VNI reported that the sum of cellular traffic; cellular offload traffic; and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic from portable devices totaled 44.1 exabytes per month; with cellular recording 16 per cent or 6.9 exabytes per month; cellular offload is four per cent or 2.0 exabytes per month and fixed/Wi-Fi is 80 per cent or 35.2 exabytes per month.

The Virtual Networking Index maintained that in 2015, Fixed/Wi-Fi traffic will be more than five times greater than cellular traffic.

Remmy Nweke

ITREALMS Online ... delivering news for ICT4D

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