With Nigeria’s next presidential election scheduled for January 16, 2027, the political atmosphere is already thick with a sense of "déjà vu." While the polls are still ten months away, many Nigerians feel they already know the outcome; not through clairvoyance, but through a sober look at the precedents set in 2023.
Today, as the beneficiary of that contentious process sits in the seat of power, the question looms: what will stop a repeat of this "electoral brigandage" in 2027?
President Tinubu appears to be taking no chances. Critics point to the signing of an Electoral Act that makes the electronic transmission of results optional; a loophole many view as a "dinosaur-proportioned" window for manipulation.
President Tinubu appears to be taking no chances. Critics point to the signing of an Electoral Act that makes the electronic transmission of results optional; a loophole many view as a "dinosaur-proportioned" window for manipulation.
In this environment, the drift toward a one-party state seems accelerate. Of the 10 PDP governors elected in 2023, eight have reportedly defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC). This migration of the "political class" suggests that for many, survival and "crumbs from the emperor’s table" outweigh democratic dignity.
However, an unlikely challenger has emerged from the shadows of the APC’s own foundation. While figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar remain formidable, it is Nasir El-Rufai who is currently "wagging a finger" at the presidency.
A founding father of the APC, El-Rufai was instrumental in the emergence of both Muhammadu Buhari and Bola Tinubu. Yet, the relationship soured following El-Rufai’s high-profile snub during ministerial appointments; ostensibly due to security clearance issues.
However, an unlikely challenger has emerged from the shadows of the APC’s own foundation. While figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar remain formidable, it is Nasir El-Rufai who is currently "wagging a finger" at the presidency.
A founding father of the APC, El-Rufai was instrumental in the emergence of both Muhammadu Buhari and Bola Tinubu. Yet, the relationship soured following El-Rufai’s high-profile snub during ministerial appointments; ostensibly due to security clearance issues.
For a man of El-Rufai’s ego and history; from his disruptive tenure as FCT Minister to his controversial Muslim-Muslim ticket in Kaduna, this was a declaration of war.
El-Rufai has since signaled a shift to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a move that has clearly unsettled the establishment. His recent encounters with security agencies and the ICPC over allegations involving the National Security Adviser’s communications suggest a government on the defensive.
The numbers tell a compelling story: as of March 11, the ADC reportedly registered over 652,000 new members, with a staggering 555,299 coming from the North. If El-Rufai can successfully mobilize the Northern bloc, the 2027 "jungle" may not be as predictable as the incumbents hope. The game, it seems, is far from over.
*Contributed by Ayodele Olukoya, a public analyst writes from Oyo State
El-Rufai has since signaled a shift to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a move that has clearly unsettled the establishment. His recent encounters with security agencies and the ICPC over allegations involving the National Security Adviser’s communications suggest a government on the defensive.
The numbers tell a compelling story: as of March 11, the ADC reportedly registered over 652,000 new members, with a staggering 555,299 coming from the North. If El-Rufai can successfully mobilize the Northern bloc, the 2027 "jungle" may not be as predictable as the incumbents hope. The game, it seems, is far from over.
*Contributed by Ayodele Olukoya, a public analyst writes from Oyo State
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